VODACOM JULY 2005 - QUESTIONS ABOUND:
(see our w-f-a merit assessment below)
This year's race poses a difficult betting challenge with a number of unknowns which only the race will answer.
Most important:
1. DUNSINANE - a flood of money suggests that this fine 3-y-o will see out the extra ground and may even improve with a tough test of stamina. His full potential is still to be revealed. How good is he?
2. NIGHT WATCH - will he reproduce his Gold Challenge form over 2200m? Should he stay the distance he looks difficult to beat as a 4-y-o with 51kg. Will he stay?
3. REVEILLE BOY - Can he fulfill the promise he showed in the Gold Circle Derby 2 years ago? Just how much has his Astrapak run brought him on?
4. TYSON - Can he recapture his top-class form of 6 months ago? Will he be able to get going over the short Greyville straight?
5. RABIYA - Just how much did he have in hand when he won the Daily News?
6. ZEBRA CROSSING - This colt is improving fast. Just how much will the Daily News have brought him on?
7. EVENTUAIL - loads of class at best. How much will the Gold Challenge run have brought him on?
8. GANG RELATED - a talented horse whose problems have prevented him from showing how good he is. How good is he? Scant form to go on!
9. IRRIDESCENCE, JOSHUA'S PRINCESS - How good are these 3-y-o fillies? Are they up to this big task at the weights?
PUNTER INFO FOR
GREYVILLE
at 2 July 2005
Race 7 : VODACOM DURBAN JULY (GRADE 1) R2000000 (2200m) at 16:20
Best in on ratings | Class
indicator | How they rate to
finish at best | Equipment
changes | Take Note
| No. | Runner | Age | Sex | Draw | Kg | Lbs | Race FMR | FMR minus Wt. | Jockey | Bl | Alum. | Days since last run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EVENTUAIL (ARG) | 6 | G | 16 | 58 | 128 | 127 | -1 | B FAYD'HERBE | A | 12 | |
| 2 | ALASTOR | 6 | G | 15 | 56 | 123 | 126 | 3 | G PULLER | B | A | 12 |
| 3 | WINTER SOLSTICE | 4 | C | 1 | 56 | 123 | 126 | 3 | G HATT | A | 12 | |
| 4 | TYSON | 4 | C | 8 | 54.5 | 120 | 127 | 7 | C LITTLE | A | 18 | |
| 5 | GREY ARROW | 4 | C | 17 | 54 | 119 | 123 | 4 | R HILL | A | 12 | |
| 6 | ILHA DA VITORIA (BRZ) | 4 | F | 19 | 53.5 | 118 | 120 | 2 | B SMITH | A | 12 | |
| 7 | WESTERN PROSPECT | 4 | C | 6 | 53.5 | 118 | 123 | 5 | K SHEA | A | 18 | |
| 8 | DUNSINANE | 3 | C | 12 | 53 | 117 | 117 | 0 | M KHAN | A | 26 | |
| 9 | RABIYA | 3 | C | 3 | 53 | 117 | 120 | 3 | R FRADD | A | 18 | |
| 10 | GANG RELATED | 5 | G | 13 | 52.5 | 115 | 116 | 1 | M ODENDAAL | A | 208 | |
| 11 | IRRIDESCENCE | 3 | F | 11 | 52 | 114 | 115 | 1 | W Marwing | A | 18 | |
| 12 | DUNFORD | 4 | C | 4 | 52 | 114 | 119 | 5 | A MARCUS | B | A | 20 |
| 13 | THE DECAGON | 5 | C | 5 | 52 | 114 | 119 | 5 | R Simons | A | 26 | |
| 14 | SILVERPOINT (AUS) | 3 | C | 10 | 51 | 112 | 116 | 4 | A DELPECH | A | 18 | |
| 15 | NIGHT WATCH | 4 | C | 7 | 51 | 112 | 124 | 12 | G VAN ZYL | A | 12 | |
| 16 | ARABIAN GLOW | 3 | C | 18 | 51 | 112 | 116 | 4 | F NAUDE | A | 18 | |
| 17 | PAVLOVICH (SNL) | 3 | C | 14 | 51 | 112 | 115 | 3 | F COETZEE | A | 18 | |
| 18 | ZEBRA CROSSING | 3 | C | 2 | 51 | 112 | 116 | 4 | J LLOYD | A | 18 | |
| 19 | REVEILLE BOY | 5 | C | 9 | 51 | 112 | 122 | 10 | P STRYDOM | A | 20 | |
| 20 | JOSHUA'S PRINCESS | 3 | F | 20 | 50 | 110 | 112 | 2 | G SCHLECHTER | A | 18 |
| BEST IN ON RATINGS - lb | BEST IN ON RATINGS - lengths | CLASS INDICATOR : WFA FMR | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
| HANDICAP | WFA FMR | CURRENT FMR | FMR minus HCP | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
| This graphic represents the projected order of finish, provided each horse reproduces its best exposed form. Other factors which affect performance, such as: draw, state of going, distance suitability, jockeyship, current form etc., are not factored into this calculation. | ||
| Each horse icon = 1 length | |
|
| NIGHT WATCH | 0 | |
| REVEILLE BOY | -1.33 | |
| TYSON | -3.33 | |
| DUNFORD | -4.67 | |
| THE DECAGON | -4.67 | |
| WESTERN PROSPECT | -4.67 | |
| ARABIAN GLOW | -5.33 | |
| GREY ARROW | -5.33 | |
| SILVERPOINT (AUS) | -5.33 | |
| ZEBRA CROSSING | -5.33 | |
| ALASTOR | -6 | |
| PAVLOVICH (SNL) | -6 | |
| RABIYA | -6 | |
| WINTER SOLSTICE | -6 | |
| ILHA DA VITORIA (BRZ) | -6.67 | |
| JOSHUA'S PRINCESS | -6.67 | |
| GANG RELATED | -7.33 | |
| IRRIDESCENCE | -7.33 | |
| DUNSINANE | -8 | |
| EVENTUAIL (ARG) | -8.67 | |
FORM PREVIEW:
NIGHT WATCH - late blooming 4-y-o. Won 4 races (1200 - 1600m) from 8 starts at 3 years, but was well beaten in The Dingaans. Has made massive improvement from 5 starts this season. Impressive 2,75 length winner in the 1800m Sledgehammer Stakes at penultimate start and then ran Winter Solstice to a hard ridden neck in the Gr1 Gold Challenge (1600m) at level weights. The big question is "can he reproduce that top-class level of form over 2200m?" As a full-brother to dual Gold Cup winner Highland Night he is certainly bred to stay. Michael Azzie: "Owing to unsoundness problems (a chipped bone) I have taken my time with him believing that he had the potential to race with the best. He has thrived in Durban and I think he has peaked at exactly the right time. I am confident he will stay the distance, and given luck in the running I think he should win at the weights."
REVEILLE BOY - went down narrowly to top-class Superwood and Major Bluff in the Gold Circle Derby (26 July, 2003), but owing to unsoundness has only run 9 times in 2 years since. Trialed well enough to win the Astrapak 1900 and should be even fitter with the benefit of this race. Brett Crawford: "He has only won 4 races from 9 starts in 2 years since the Derby because of an injury (chipped bone) as a 4-y-o. We have had to be patient and I think he is now 100% sound and in excellent condition. The Astrapak has brought him on and he should be ready to run the race of his life in the Vodacom July".
TYSON - Graham Pettigrew: "After 2 tremendous performances in the Gommagomma and J&B Met Tyson trained off and has disappointed in his last 4 starts. He raced green in The Lonsdale on his debut at Greyville, but finished very strongly. He has improved dramatically in the last 3 weeks and now that he knows the track, I think he will be a difficult horse to beat at the weights."
WESTERN PROSPECT - Neil Bruss: "As Western Prospect matures into his huge 17 hand frame he gets better and better. He has won all 3 of his races since his workmanlike Gold Circle Derby victory a year ago, and I think he is a far more formidable competitor now as a late 4-y-o. Expect a big run from him at the weights."
ZEBRA CROSSING - Neil Bruss: "This colt has always shown a touch of brilliance in his work and only now seems to be racing to his potential. He was still a little green when 2,25 lengths behind Rabiya in the Daily News so with a pull of 2kg and an excellent draw we may just be able to turn the tables. However, in receipt of only 2,5kg from Western Prospect, I wonder whether he is advanced enough at this stage of his career. I think that both of my runners will be right there at the finish."
RABIYA - winner of 3 classics from his last 4 starts. Came from behind with an explosive burst to beat Zebra Crossing by 2,25 lengths in the Daily News, his first race past 2000m., giving the impression that he may not have been fully extended in that race. Faces a tough task as a 3-y-o under 53kg but has an excellent draw and may be even better than rated. Dean Kannemeyer: "Rabiya has come through his preparation very well and has everything in his favour. He is a terrific 3-y-o, but only the race will tell whether he can win at these weights."
DUNFORD - put up terrific performances at the weights at his last 2 starts and may be a better horse now than he was in the J&B Met when putting up a solid performance at the weights. May be better than rated. Well drawn and weighted with a good chance.
THE DECAGON - solid performances in graded stakes at his last 3 starts earn this late developer respect from a good draw with 52kg. Must be considered for exotic perms.
SILVERPOINT (AUS) - 2nd in SA Classic; 2nd in Gauteng Guineas; won SA Derby in March and April. Ran below best in the Daily News, but can't be discounted from a decent draw with 51kg. Last year's SA Derby winner Grey's Inn won the Vodacom July in brilliant style despite a below par run in the Daily News.
ARABIAN GLOW - went into the Daily News as a winner of 4 races from 13 starts in Joburg and showed marked improvement to finish 2,35 lengths 3rd. This was his first start beyond 1800m. Chance for money if he can overcome a bad draw.
PAVLOVICH (SNL) - 2nd beaten a neck by Silverpoint in SA Derby; 4th beaten 2,4 lengths by Rabiya in Daily News. Chance for money if he can beat a bad draw.
WINTER SOLSTICE - 15 starts for 8 wins, 5 seconds, 1 third, 1 fourth including 4 graded stakes victories, this top-class 4-y-o has the heart of a lion and despite a big task at the weights will be a formidable opponent from No1 draw. Must be included in all exotic bets.
ALASTOR - finished strongly to win J&B Met under 55kg over 2000m. Races past 2000m for the first time and will probably prefer the extra 200m. Top-class trials in Drill Hall and Gold Challenge. Big weight and bad draw make his task difficult, but class earns respect for place money.
ILHA DA VITORIA (BRZ) - top-class and very brave 4-y-o filly. Has won both her trials and may improve over an extra 200m. Never runs a bad race. Must be respected for exotics despite a bad draw.
JOSHUA'S PRINCESS - impressed when chasing Irridescence home in the Woolavington at her final prep. A big ask for a 3-y-o filly from No20 draw.
IRRIDESCENCE - has won 3 graded stakes at her last 3 starts. Has won 6 of her 10 lifetime starts. Faces a difficult task as a 3-y-o filly but deserves respect for exotics.
GANG RELATED - hasn't run since a good 2nd in the Gommagomma in November, -an unknown factor.
DUNSINANE - has won 6 of 8 starts including KZN Guineas and Jubilee Hcp (1800m). Bred to stay this extra and may be better than rated on form up to 1800m. A difficult colt to assess. Must be respected as the Woodruff stable elect.
EVENTUAIL - showed real class when giving Wolf Whistle a 10lb beating in the 2002 Summer Cup. Beaten only ˝ length in the Gold Challenge at his last start. Just how much that race will have brought him on is anyone's guess. Another unknown factor.
TRACK CONDITIONS AT GREYVILLE: MEDIA RELEASE
The
most famous racing venue in
It
has been lovingly cared for and prepared by Racecourse Manager Ralph Smout and
his team and Smout predicts a penetrometer reading of about 20.5 on the day and
a racing surface that will be good with just a little give in it.
On
that basis it will be a surface on which every runner on the day will have an
even chance and, with the false rail set at 10 metres, the runners will be able
to fan out as they come into the straight allowing room for all runners, and
particularly those coming from off the pace, a passage through to the finish
line.
At
8.30am today (Wednesday), the penetrometer reading was 22.3, and that after 2.5
mm of rain on Tuesday night. No further rain is expected before Saturday and
with sunny skies and a nice breeze the surface will dry to give it the expected
20.5 reading on Saturday.
“The
course is looking beautiful. I gave it a dash of fertilizer two weeks ago and
with the rain last week and the little last night, it has greened up
beautifully.
“The
forecast for Saturday is a sunny day with a temperate of 26 degrees. A light
north-westerly wind changing to a light north-easterly later in the day is
predicted by the weather office.”
He
said the track was rolled today (Wednesday) and had suffered less wear and tear
from last Friday night’s racemeeting than had been expected.
“It is looking great and will be perfect for the meeting on Saturday.”
BETTING AS AT 29 JUNE 2005:
MEDIA RELEASE