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VODACOM DURBAN JULY PREVIEW PDF Print E-mail
Written by Charles Faull   
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FORM PREVIEW

 

 

1.       POCKET POWER - 7-year-old, one day from turning 8.  Put up best performance at

weights in 2007, 2008 and 2009.  Top weight from 17 draw is huge task for best horse in

the race, but HE WILL BEAT MOST OF THESE HORSES home.  Include in all exotic

bets.  Why is the great horse worse off at the weights with River Jetez for a one length

beating in J+B Met?

 

2.       RUDRA – from No. 19 draw under welter burden he looks well held by most.  Improved

in blinkers last time.  Outside chance for place money.

 

3.       FABIANI – 33/1 looks a fair price for him on current form.

 

4.       IRISH FLAME – 3-year-old winner of SA Derby, Daily News 2000 and Gold Circle

Derby at last 3 starts. 7/2 favourite.  Good draw, but big task at weights.

 

5.        FORT VOGUE – ran a good trial when not fitted with blinkers at last start.  Anton

Marcus elects to ride probably because of crack run with blinkers in J+B Met. Fair draw.

Weighted with fighting chance.  Blinkers back on! Include in all bets!

 

6.        BOLD SILVANO – 1lb pull with Irish Flame for narrow defeat in Daily News 2000.

Bang in form and likes Greyville.  Excellent draw.  Many plusses make him a live

candidate in most open race.

 

7.        ORBISON – 3-year-old.  Big weight.  Bad draw. Showed massive improvement when

producing level performance with such as Pocket Power to win Gr1 Champions Cup

1800m at last start.  Must be included in all exotics.  Will he reproduce that excellent

Champions Cup form at 2200m? If he does, big runner.

 

8.        RED RAKE – Thrashed such as FORT VOGUE and FABIANI when winning 1800m

Midmar Trophy in December.  Should Mike de Kock coax that level of merit out of him, he

could shock at 40/1 here.  Current Durban form is not bad, so respect for place money.

 

9.        ANCESTRAL FORE – Could be best 3-year-old in country; showed a love for

Greyville with two massive wins at huge weight-for-age disadvantage in 2400m Lonsdale

and 3200m Gold Cup.  Big runner with Karl Neisius up.  Include in all exotics.

 

10.   RIVER JETEZ – Beat her brother POCKET POWER one length in receipt of 9

half-kilos in J+B Met and is now 1 half-kilo better of at weights?  Is this a sincere attempt to

level the chances of every runner?  Loves Greyville.  Bang in form.  Good draw. 

Include in all exotics.

 

11.    ASLAN – will need Felix Coetzee to again lift him up to the level which the pair of them

showed in winning Gr1 Sansui Summer Cup in November.  Will definitely prefer this extra

ground.  Durban prep form is good enough.  Chance for money.

 

12.    LOVE IS IN THE AIR – won Winter Oaks (2200m) last time she was given this

distance.  Good Durban prep form.  Good draw.  Definite chance for money.

 

13.   HAPPY VALLEY (Arg) – has improved a division since gelded after SA Derby. 

Had IRISH FLAME at full strength when only a length back in Gold Circle Derby and now

has a 4 half-kilo (4 length) pull in weights! Big runner.  Include in everything.

 

14.   CAPTAIN SCOTT – showed strong liking for Greyville when 3,25 lengths behind

BIG CITY LIFE (gave 1lb) in June 2009 Daily News 2000 – form 6 lb behind

BIG CITY LIFE. 100/1 shot with 54 kg from 15 draw. Smart 4-year-old. 

Doing well in Durban.  Has never had this extra 200m, so he is an unknown factor here.

Don’t discount totally for place money.

 

15.   LIZARRE – a very smart 3-year-old from the worst draw with 53,5 Kg. 

Finished 3 lengths (4 half-kilos) behind IRISH FLAME in Daily News, so must be respected

with 5 half-kilo pull in the weights. Excellent trial when 1.1 lengths behind

FLYING TRISTRAM in 1800m Pinnacle Stakes at final prep. Pierre Strydom will have to be

at his skilful best to beat the draw.  Big chance for money if Lady Luck is on his side.

 

16.   RUSSIAN SAGE – Dual Gr1 SW as 3-year-old of Investec Cape Derby and Daily

News 2000.  Has run 2 promising trials since returning from a trip to Dubai, and his trainer

is confident that he has him where he was a year ago.  Well weighted 4-year-old, we won’t

be surprised to see him prevail here.  Impressive final gallop so include in all exotics.

 

17.  FLYING TRISTRAM – gave a 5 to 6 lb wfa beating to FORT VOGUE and RUDRA

over 1800m on 11 July – massive improvement over anything he has shown to date. 

Now has both of these 2 older horses well beaten at the weights.  Should this son of

FLYING SPUR stay 2200 metres, then he is a huge runner at the weights. 

Anton Marcus’s move to FORT VOGUE does not inspire confidence, but jockeys are often

wrong in these sort of situations. Dam inbred to great SIR TRISTRAM. 

Certainly a pedigree that could stretch to 2200 metres.

 

18.   SERVICE ACE – has a 3 Kg pull with IRISH FLAME for 6 lengths in Gold Circle

Derby.  This well bred colt’s form now catching up with his reputation. 

Best draw and bottom weight earn respect for money.

 

19.   VERTICAL TAKEOFF - Gr2 SW of Colorado King Stakes in April this year. Good 2nd

in Gold Cup last time. 4-year-old with bottom weight and good draw. Could improve.

 

20.   GOAT – won Gold Circle Oaks over 2400m in June 2009. 

Has done well over shorter trips since. Will be running at them from a good

draw with bottom weight.

 

 

SUMMARY

 

Most open looking Vodacom July in many a year. 

A case can be made for virtually every runner finishing in the money.

 

FORT VOGUE has been the shrewd tip since his big run in blinkers in J+B Met. 

The blinkers are back on. Dual Gr1 winning 4-year-old RUSSIAN SAGE

is very well handicapped and is confidently fancied by Justin Snaith. 3-year-olds who made massive

improvement at their last starts are: HAPPY VALLEY (Arg), ORBISON and

FLYING TRISTRAM (Aus). LIZARRE  also has that coming on look about him.

All 4 young colts impressed in their gallops.

 

REMEMBER that the accurate weight-for-age allowance for

3-year-olds is 3Kg (6.6 lb) over 2200 metres at this stage.

 

Why has POCKET POWER been brutalised by the handicapper? Yet again. 

All of POCKET POWER, RUDRA and FABIANI should have been given

at least one Kilogram less against a red hot crop of three-year-olds.


 

Vodacom Durban July Merit Assessment and Preview

VODACOM DURBAN JULY 2010

 MERIT ASSESSMENT

 

RUNNER

AGE

DR

HCP KG = LB

FMR 

HCP

COMMENT

 1. POCKET POWER

1-B-G

17

60,0 = 132

128

-4

Champion. Peak Form. Tough handicap

 2. RUDRA

5-CH-G

19

59,5 = 131

124

-7

Bad draw. Tough handicap

 3. FABIANI

4-CH-C

4

56,5 = 124

123

-1.3

Recent form patchy

 4. IRISH FLAME

3-B-C

6

56,0 = 123

123 p.

-2.2

Brilliant 3-y-o. Good draw

 5. FORT VOGUE

4-B-G

11

56,0 = 123

124

1

Well weighted 4-y-o

 6. BOLD SILVANO

3-B-C

2

55,5 = 122

119 p.

-3

Brilliant 3-y-o. Good draw

 7. ORBISON

3-B-C

16

55,5 = 122

121 p.

-1

Much improved 3-y-o

 8. RED RAKE

6-B-G

7

55,5 = 122

123

1

Top at best. Unreliable

 9. ANCESTRAL FORE

3-GR-C

13

55,0 = 121

122 p.

1

Champion gold cup win

10. RIVER JETEZ

6-B-F

9

55,0 = 121

119

-2

Champion filly. Honest

11. ASLAN

4-B-C

10

54,5 = 120

122

2

Runs well for Coetzee

12. LOVE IS IN THE AIR

4-B-F

5

54,5 = 120

116

-4

Stays well. Tough handicap

13. HAPPY VALLEY (ARG)

3-GR-G

14

54,0 = 119

119 p.

0

Much improved 3-y-o

14. CAPTAIN SCOTT

4-GR-C

15

54,0 = 119

118

-1

Smart 4-y-o. Extra will suit

15. LIZARRE

3-B-C

20

53,5 = 118

117 p.

-1

Improving 3-y-o

16. RUSSIAN SAGE

4-B-C

12

53,5 = 118

122

4

Well handicaped 4-y-o

17. FLYING TRISTRAM

3-B-C

18

53,0 = 117

118 p.

1

Much improved 3-y-o

18. SERVICE ACE

3-CH-C

1

53,0 = 117

113 p.

-4

Improving. Good draw

19. VERTICAL TAKEOFF

4-B-C

8

53,0 = 117

115

-2

In form 4-y-o

20. GOAT

4-B-F

3

52,0 = 114

115

-1

Extra will suit

 


BEST IN ON RATINGS

CLASS INDICATOR

Runner

lb

Runner

lb

RUSSIAN SAGE

4.0

POCKET POWER

128

ASLAN

1.9

ANCESTRAL FORE

128

FLYING TRISTRAM

1.2

ORBISON

127

ANCESTRAL FORE

0.7

IRISH FLAME

127

RED RAKE

0.6

BOLD SILVANO

125

FORT VOGUE

0.5

HAPPY VALLEY (ARG)

125

GOAT

0.4

RUDRA

124

HAPPY VALLEY (ARG)

0.1

FLYING TRISTRAM

124

LIZARRE

-1.0

FORT VOGUE

124

CAPTAIN SCOTT

-1.1

FABIANI

123

ORBISON

-1.4

RED RAKE

123

FABIANI

-1.6

LIZARRE

123

VERTICAL TAKEOFF

-1.8

RUSSIAN SAGE

122

RIVER JETEZ

-2.3

ASLAN

122

IRISH FLAME

-2.5

RIVER JETEZ

119

BOLD SILVANO

-3.5

SERVICE ACE

119

SERVICE ACE

-3.8

CAPTAIN SCOTT

118

LOVE IS IN THE AIR

-4.1

LOVE IS IN THE AIR

116

POCKET POWER

-4.3

VERTICAL TAKEOFF

115

RUDRA

-7.2

GOAT

115

    

CLASS INDICATOR

PERFORMANCE RATES

Runner

lb

Runner

Lengths (+)

POCKET POWER

128

FLYING TRISTRAM

4.00

ANCESTRAL FORE

128

RUSSIAN SAGE

3.90

ORBISON

127

ANCESTRAL FORE

3.90

IRISH FLAME

127

FORT VOGUE

3.86

BOLD SILVANO

125

HAPPY VALLEY (ARG)

3.85

HAPPY VALLEY (ARG)

125

IRISH FLAME

3.70

RUDRA

124

ORBISON

3.68

FLYING TRISTRAM

124

LIZARRE

3.65

FORT VOGUE

124

POCKET POWER

3.60

FABIANI

123

RIVER JETEZ

3.55

RED RAKE

123

BOLD SILVANO

3.50

LIZARRE

123

RED RAKE

3.30

RUSSIAN SAGE

122

CAPTAIN SCOTT

3.25

ASLAN

122

ASLAN

2.90

RIVER JETEZ

119

VERTICAL TAKEOFF

2.80

SERVICE ACE

119

FABIANI

2.70

CAPTAIN SCOTT

118

RUDRA

2.60

LOVE IS IN THE AIR

116

SERVICE ACE

2.20

VERTICAL TAKEOFF

115

LOVE IS IN THE AIR

2.20

GOAT

115

GOAT

2.00

 

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