
FORM PREVIEW 1. POCKET POWER - 7-year-old, one day from turning 8. Put up best performance at weights in 2007, 2008 and 2009. Top weight from 17 draw is huge task for best horse in the race, but HE WILL BEAT MOST OF THESE HORSES home. Include in all exotic bets. Why is the great horse worse off at the weights with River Jetez for a one length beating in J+B Met? 2. RUDRA – from No. 19 draw under welter burden he looks well held by most. Improved in blinkers last time. Outside chance for place money. 3. FABIANI – 33/1 looks a fair price for him on current form. 4. IRISH FLAME – 3-year-old winner of SA Derby, Daily News 2000 and Gold Circle Derby at last 3 starts. 7/2 favourite. Good draw, but big task at weights. 5. FORT VOGUE – ran a good trial when not fitted with blinkers at last start. Anton Marcus elects to ride probably because of crack run with blinkers in J+B Met. Fair draw. Weighted with fighting chance. Blinkers back on! Include in all bets! 6. BOLD SILVANO – 1lb pull with Irish Flame for narrow defeat in Daily News 2000. Bang in form and likes Greyville. Excellent draw. Many plusses make him a live candidate in most open race. 7. ORBISON – 3-year-old. Big weight. Bad draw. Showed massive improvement when producing level performance with such as Pocket Power to win Gr1 Champions Cup 1800m at last start. Must be included in all exotics. Will he reproduce that excellent Champions Cup form at 2200m? If he does, big runner. 8. RED RAKE – Thrashed such as FORT VOGUE and FABIANI when winning 1800m Midmar Trophy in December. Should Mike de Kock coax that level of merit out of him, he could shock at 40/1 here. Current Durban form is not bad, so respect for place money. 9. ANCESTRAL FORE – Could be best 3-year-old in country; showed a love for Greyville with two massive wins at huge weight-for-age disadvantage in 2400m Lonsdale and 3200m Gold Cup. Big runner with Karl Neisius up. Include in all exotics. 10. RIVER JETEZ – Beat her brother POCKET POWER one length in receipt of 9 half-kilos in J+B Met and is now 1 half-kilo better of at weights? Is this a sincere attempt to level the chances of every runner? Loves Greyville. Bang in form. Good draw. Include in all exotics. 11. ASLAN – will need Felix Coetzee to again lift him up to the level which the pair of them showed in winning Gr1 Sansui Summer Cup in November. Will definitely prefer this extra ground. Durban prep form is good enough. Chance for money. 12. LOVE IS IN THE AIR – won Winter Oaks (2200m) last time she was given this distance. Good Durban prep form. Good draw. Definite chance for money. 13. HAPPY VALLEY (Arg) – has improved a division since gelded after SA Derby. Had IRISH FLAME at full strength when only a length back in Gold Circle Derby and now has a 4 half-kilo (4 length) pull in weights! Big runner. Include in everything. 14. CAPTAIN SCOTT – showed strong liking for Greyville when 3,25 lengths behind BIG CITY LIFE (gave 1lb) in June 2009 Daily News 2000 – form 6 lb behind BIG CITY LIFE. 100/1 shot with 54 kg from 15 draw. Smart 4-year-old. Doing well in Durban. Has never had this extra 200m, so he is an unknown factor here. Don’t discount totally for place money. 15. LIZARRE – a very smart 3-year-old from the worst draw with 53,5 Kg. Finished 3 lengths (4 half-kilos) behind IRISH FLAME in Daily News, so must be respected with 5 half-kilo pull in the weights. Excellent trial when 1.1 lengths behind FLYING TRISTRAM in 1800m Pinnacle Stakes at final prep. Pierre Strydom will have to be at his skilful best to beat the draw. Big chance for money if Lady Luck is on his side. 16. RUSSIAN SAGE – Dual Gr1 SW as 3-year-old of Investec Cape Derby and Daily News 2000. Has run 2 promising trials since returning from a trip to Dubai, and his trainer is confident that he has him where he was a year ago. Well weighted 4-year-old, we won’t be surprised to see him prevail here. Impressive final gallop so include in all exotics. 17. FLYING TRISTRAM – gave a 5 to 6 lb wfa beating to FORT VOGUE and RUDRA over 1800m on 11 July – massive improvement over anything he has shown to date. Now has both of these 2 older horses well beaten at the weights. Should this son of FLYING SPUR stay 2200 metres, then he is a huge runner at the weights. Anton Marcus’s move to FORT VOGUE does not inspire confidence, but jockeys are often wrong in these sort of situations. Dam inbred to great SIR TRISTRAM. Certainly a pedigree that could stretch to 2200 metres. 18. SERVICE ACE – has a 3 Kg pull with IRISH FLAME for 6 lengths in Gold Circle Derby. This well bred colt’s form now catching up with his reputation. Best draw and bottom weight earn respect for money. 19. VERTICAL TAKEOFF - Gr2 SW of Colorado King Stakes in April this year. Good 2nd in Gold Cup last time. 4-year-old with bottom weight and good draw. Could improve. 20. GOAT – won Gold Circle Oaks over 2400m in June 2009. Has done well over shorter trips since. Will be running at them from a good draw with bottom weight. SUMMARY Most open looking Vodacom July in many a year. A case can be made for virtually every runner finishing in the money. FORT VOGUE has been the shrewd tip since his big run in blinkers in J+B Met. The blinkers are back on. Dual Gr1 winning 4-year-old RUSSIAN SAGE is very well handicapped and is confidently fancied by Justin Snaith. 3-year-olds who made massive improvement at their last starts are: HAPPY VALLEY (Arg), ORBISON and FLYING TRISTRAM (Aus). LIZARRE also has that coming on look about him. All 4 young colts impressed in their gallops. REMEMBER that the accurate weight-for-age allowance for 3-year-olds is 3Kg (6.6 lb) over 2200 metres at this stage. Why has POCKET POWER been brutalised by the handicapper? Yet again. All of POCKET POWER, RUDRA and FABIANI should have been given at least one Kilogram less against a red hot crop of three-year-olds.
Vodacom Durban July Merit Assessment and Preview | VODACOM DURBAN JULY 2010 | MERIT ASSESSMENT | | | RUNNER | AGE | DR | HCP KG = LB | FMR | HCP | COMMENT | 1. POCKET POWER | 1-B-G | 17 | 60,0 = 132 | 128 | -4 | Champion. Peak Form. Tough handicap | 2. RUDRA | 5-CH-G | 19 | 59,5 = 131 | 124 | -7 | Bad draw. Tough handicap | 3. FABIANI | 4-CH-C | 4 | 56,5 = 124 | 123 | -1.3 | Recent form patchy | 4. IRISH FLAME | 3-B-C | 6 | 56,0 = 123 | 123 p. | -2.2 | Brilliant 3-y-o. Good draw | 5. FORT VOGUE | 4-B-G | 11 | 56,0 = 123 | 124 | 1 | Well weighted 4-y-o | 6. BOLD SILVANO | 3-B-C | 2 | 55,5 = 122 | 119 p. | -3 | Brilliant 3-y-o. Good draw | 7. ORBISON | 3-B-C | 16 | 55,5 = 122 | 121 p. | -1 | Much improved 3-y-o | 8. RED RAKE | 6-B-G | 7 | 55,5 = 122 | 123 | 1 | Top at best. Unreliable | 9. ANCESTRAL FORE | 3-GR-C | 13 | 55,0 = 121 | 122 p. | 1 | Champion gold cup win | 10. RIVER JETEZ | 6-B-F | 9 | 55,0 = 121 | 119 | -2 | Champion filly. Honest | 11. ASLAN | 4-B-C | 10 | 54,5 = 120 | 122 | 2 | Runs well for Coetzee | 12. LOVE IS IN THE AIR | 4-B-F | 5 | 54,5 = 120 | 116 | -4 | Stays well. Tough handicap | 13. HAPPY VALLEY (ARG) | 3-GR-G | 14 | 54,0 = 119 | 119 p. | 0 | Much improved 3-y-o | 14. CAPTAIN SCOTT | 4-GR-C | 15 | 54,0 = 119 | 118 | -1 | Smart 4-y-o. Extra will suit | 15. LIZARRE | 3-B-C | 20 | 53,5 = 118 | 117 p. | -1 | Improving 3-y-o | 16. RUSSIAN SAGE | 4-B-C | 12 | 53,5 = 118 | 122 | 4 | Well handicaped 4-y-o | 17. FLYING TRISTRAM | 3-B-C | 18 | 53,0 = 117 | 118 p. | 1 | Much improved 3-y-o | 18. SERVICE ACE | 3-CH-C | 1 | 53,0 = 117 | 113 p. | -4 | Improving. Good draw | 19. VERTICAL TAKEOFF | 4-B-C | 8 | 53,0 = 117 | 115 | -2 | In form 4-y-o | 20. GOAT | 4-B-F | 3 | 52,0 = 114 | 115 | -1 | Extra will suit |

|